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Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Turkey Consumer Confidence February 2008

The Turkish consumer confidence index fell by 4.9 percent in February according to the latest monthly Consumer Tendency Survey carried out by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) and the Turkish Central Bank, which was released yesterday.

The survey shows that consumer confidence declined from 92.12 in January to 87.6 in February. The index indicates an optimistic outlook if it is above 100 and a neutral outlook if it is equal to 100. When it is below 100 points, it means consumers are pessimistic about their future.

The decrease in the Consumer Confidence Index stemmed from a deterioration in consumers' assessments concerning their purchasing power for the present and coming periods, the general situation of the economy, job opportunities in the next six months and the "buying time conditions" of durable goods in the present period.

The index value of consumer purchasing power was 82.66 in December 2007 but retreated to 80.78 and 77.68 in the first two months of the year, respectively. Consumers are not anticipating an increase in their purchasing power in the coming six months, either, as they are expecting it to decrease by a further 2.63 percent.

The index for "buying time conditions" was also down in the survey, from 118.41 in January to 112.14 in February. Under this subtitle, the changes in the index values were as follows: probability of buying durable goods in the next six months (0.48 percent); probability of buying a car in the next six months (7.47 percent); probability of buying or building a home within the next 12 months (1.57 percent); probability of spending money on home improvements or renovations in the next six months (22.68 percent); probability of borrowing money to finance consumption expenditures in the next three months (-2.74 percent); "saving time conditions in the present time" (2.11 percent); probability of saving in the next six months (7.95 percent); expectation about the direction of price changes in the next 12 months (-5.38 percent).

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