According to the IMF (here):
Turkey’s large financing requirements made it particularly vulnerable to a sudden stop in capital inflows (Box 2 and Table 6). Weaker fundamentals than in other emerging market countries (a large and widening current account deficit; a still high gross public debt ratio tilted towards instruments with adjustable rates or short maturities; and an uncertain inflation outlook) exposed Turkey to a sudden reversal of capital inflows. These vulnerabilities were amplified by Turkey’s hefty near-term public and external financing requirements (respectively, 30 and 27 percent of GNP) and still high degree of liability dollarization (especially, corporates’ large net open foreign exchange position, estimated at 10 percent of GNP—see Appendix IV of IMF Country Report No.06/402). Moreover, large foreign investor positions (“hot money”) in the government bond and money markets (estimated at around 9 percent of GNP), amid less supportive political and global economic environments, made Turkey very sensitive to shifts in market sentiment.
(Page 16).
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Tuesday, September 04, 2007
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